| 4 | Rising tensions - class consciousness emerges, resentment builds | Excessive debt and spending accumulates. Wealth and political gaps widen. Decadent spending becomes fashionable. Debt-financed consumption. Productivity focus shifts toward consumption. Asset bubbles ... | 10-20 years | Growing imbalances - debt growth without corresponding productivity | Begin de-risking. Reduce leverage. Build cash reserves. Diversify geographically. Real assets over financial assets. Watch for bubble signs. Prepare for Stage 5 transition. | Transitional - leaders often weak or captured by special interests | Excesses in Spending & Debt; Wealth Gaps Widen |
| 6 | Extreme violence - fatalities mark the transition | System breakdown. Fight to replace existing order with new one. Brutality escalates unexpectedly. Everyone forced to pick sides - moderates cease to exist. Acute money/credit shortage. Governments gra... | 3-10 years typical | Acute shortage - defaults, currency devaluation, wealth confiscation | CAPITAL PRESERVATION ONLY. Portable assets (gold, select crypto). Multiple jurisdictions. Exit strategies prepared. Financial assets may be worthless. Real assets subject to confiscation. Cash in stro... | Inspirational generals - strong enough to marshal support, brutal enough to do whatever necessary to win | Civil Wars/Revolutions |
| 1 | High consolidation violence - but exhaustion setting in | New leaders consolidate power after civil war/revolution. Remaining opposition neutralized (killed, imprisoned, exiled). Revolutionary leaders fight each other for dominance. Post-revolution 'purges' ... | Months to decades; episodic fighting can recur | Variable - rebuilding from destruction | Highly speculative. Assets cheap but rule of law uncertain. Wait for Stage 2 clarity unless you have local knowledge and can tolerate total loss. | Consolidators of power - strong, politically astute fighters willing to win at all costs (e.g., Caesar Augustus, Tang Taizong, Alexander Hamilton, Otto von Bismarck) | New Order Begins & Leadership Consolidates Power |
| 3 | Low - shared national purpose | The 'sweet spot' of the Big Cycle. Abundant opportunities for productivity. People work well together, produce wealth. Merit-based advancement. Broad optimism. Creativity flourishes. Each generation b... | 20-30 years typical | Strong surpluses - incomes exceed expenses, savings exceed liabilities | Maximum equity exposure. Excellent real returns. Entrepreneurs become heroes. Innovation accelerates. Ride the growth - this is when wealth is built. Stay fully invested. | Inspirational visionary - can imagine exciting futures, build them, maintain sound financial management, broaden inclusive benefits | Peace and Prosperity |
Number | Description | Name | Conflict Level | Duration | Financial State | Investment Stance | Leader Type Required |
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